the Chinese Communist Party plans Tuesday to put on the largest military parade in the 70-year history of the People’s Republic of China, wheeling out new hardware designed to show the country’s advances under the leadership of Xi Jinping.
The party is marking the 70th anniversary of its establishment of the state, an important milestone because the PRC has outlasted the Soviet Union, which endured for 69 years.
But it comes at a time of intense pressure on the party’s leadership.
The party is locked in a protracted trade war with the United States which coincides with a tangible slowdown in the economy. At the same time, protesters in Hong Kong are demonstrating against creeping Chinese restrictions of their freedoms and are warning Taiwanese that it could happen to them if China were to try to offer a “one country, two systems” deal to that island.
The parade will feature 59 phalanxes, about 15,000 soldiers, 160 aircraft and 580 other pieces of weaponry and equipment, Maj. Gen. Cai Zhijun, deputy director of the military parade office said. About 300,000 civilians will participate in the parade.
But Defense Ministry spokesman, Wu Qian, dismissed the idea that the People’s Liberation Army, the military force that is beholden by the Communist Party, is “flexing its muscles” to send a message to the outside world.
The DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile
The hardware of the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force is attracting particular attention, amid signs the Dongfeng-41 next generation ICBM may make its debut at the parade. “Dongfeng” means “east wind.”
The DF-41 is a three-stage, solid-fuel missile with a range of about 7,500 miles, meaning it could strike any target in the United States.
It can carry up to 10 independently targetable nuclear warheads, Xu Guangyu, a senior adviser of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, told the Global Times, a hawkish party-affiliated newspaper.
The Global Times quoted military experts saying the fourth-generation nuclear DF-41 missile is “basically at the same level as the seventh-generation nuclear missiles being developed by the U.S. and Russia, and [has] attained a world-leading level in terms of technologies, materials and processes.”
Because the DF-41 missile can be armed with a relatively large number of multiple warheads, it “gives China the opportunity to significantly increase the number of deployed warheads without increasing the size of its ballistic arsenal,” Bondaz and Delory wrote in their note.
Furthermore, the missile can carry decoys and penetration aids, boosting its offensive capabilities, and can also change course and trajectory in flight, helping their evade antimissile defenses, they said.
The DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missile
The Dongfeng-17 is a short-to-medium-range missile that can launch a hypersonic glide vehicle, or HGV, which Bondaz and Delory say “would be a major first.”
“The emergence of such a system would have a considerable impact, highlighting China’s progress in designing hypersonic nonstrategic gliders, a segment in which Russians and Americans are lagging behind,” they wrote.
The missile appears to be capable of exceeding the speed of sound and penetrating U.S. missile shields, and has a maneuverable reentry vehicle, so it could shift targets in flight.
That would make it less vulnerable to interception by other countries’ defense systems, the South China Morning Post reported, quoting an individual from the state-owned China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation.
“And the DF-17 will be capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional payloads,” said the individual, who was not named.
The DR-8 unmanned aerial vehicle and the Sharp Sword stealth attack drone
Photos from the parade rehearsals have prompted speculation that it will include two types of unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones. China has been heavily investing in drone technologies and making technological advances.
Experts have spotted images of what appears to be a DR-8 reconnaissance drone, which can reach as far into the western Pacific as the American territory of Guam, but has been in service for some time.
More concerning is the Sharp Sword, an attack drone that is not just at UAV but a UCAV: an unmanned combat air vehicle. The aircraft can carry missiles or laser-guided bombs. It expected to enter service before the end of the year.
J-20 stealth fighter jets
The PLA Air Force recently released video of seven J-20s flying in formation, prompting speculation they would fly over Tiananmen Square as part of the parade.
“To truly achieve peace, defending our homeland is not enough. We must not only defend but attack,” said Yang Wei, the J-20’s chief designer, in the video.
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